This entry was posted on June 13, 2012 by Zeke. It was filed under Uncategorized .
EMSmith at his ChiefIO blog has quite a post on this subject.
Smith has been doing an in depth evaluation of the official temperature records and the computer codes used to create the climate models.
Much of his blog is done around the GHCN temperature records. pg
June 20, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Terrific PG, I will have a look at what El Chiefio has written.
June 21, 2012 at 12:14 am
Highlighting from EM Smith’s excellent article “A Comparison of The Global Historical Climate Network data Version 1 and Version 3”
“One of the things frequently seen is that the period of time from about 1930 to 1970 is “cooled” in v3 when compared to v1. This creates a warming trend increase from then to the present. Often, too, the distant past is ‘warmed’. In gross averages, these tend to offset each other showing “little net bias”; but those statistical measures hide the way that the ‘belly of the temperature history’ gets a sag. The very early data are often not used in the later temperature series programs and are thrown away, leaving just that increased warming trend. (GISTemp, for example, ‘starts time’ in 1880 and disposes of earlier data). Similarly the 1950 to 1980 period tends to be the ‘baseline’ from which ‘warming’ is measured. Cooling the baseline biases the trend to warmer.”
“Looking at the state of the Hadley software (especially the laments in the “Harry README file”) make it very clear they could not do a QA test run. They don’t even have their input data any longer, per the emails made public. I have ported and run the Goddard GIStemp code. It is coded to expect particular stations in the input. It is not possible to run it on synthetic test data. It breaks and hangs. (Exactly how much the data can be changed before the program hangs has not yet been found. So far, every significant change of station composition has caused a crash / hang in my testing.) It looks as though it simply is not possible to do a proper QA / test / validation suite run on the various climate codes. (Though I have not seen the NCDC code, blocks of the GIStemp data descriptions include the NCDC data structures and it is clear that the two groups share code and practices, so I don’t expect much will be different).”
June 21, 2012 at 3:06 pm
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